Millennial Makeover

Morley Winograd and Michael Hais discuss the cyclical pattern of generations and their affects on the political system in their compelling, insightful, and thought-provoking book, Millenial Makeover: MySpace, YouTube & the Future of American Politics.  The book begins by discussing the historical basis for this cyclical theory, breaking American history into five sections, each about 30-40 years long.  These sections, or eras, represent time-frames where one political party dominated the presidential elections (from 1828-1956 the Democrats won 75 percent of the elections; from 1860-1892, Republicans won 78 percent of the elections, and so forth).

Not only do the authors break up history in this way, but also by generation.  Winograd and Hais identify four ‘types’ of generations, which also seem to have cyclical roots.  The first of these is the “idealist,” who represent generations like the Baby Boomers.  The second is the “reactive” generation, such as Generation X, and tend to be entrepreneurial.  The third is the “civic” generation, which had been the GI Generation, but is now the millennial generation and are “oriented to societal challenges, problem solving, and institution building marks their adult lives”.  The final generation noted is the “adaptive” generation, who had been the Silent Generation from the mid-1920s to mid-1940s, and today represents those born after 2003.

Other elements tend to correlate with these cycles as well, which also have an effect on the political climate.  These elements include population size and growth, and the technologies, specifically innovative communications technology which emerges.

According to the book, we are on a cusp of one of these cyclical changes.  The cycle which (may have) just ended, ran from 1968- 2004.  During this time, Republicans won 70 percent of the presidential elections.  As we all know, in 2008, Dems took the White House back.  A major player in doing this, was the millennial generation and the online technology used and the ballots.  The authors note the important role the growing Hispanic and Asian populations will have on the elections.

If this theory is correct, and Democrats continue to highlight and maximize the use of technology, millennials continue to support democrats, and Hispanics, who have already shown to vote mostly Democratic, continue to do so, this cycle might switch from red to blue, but as always, anything can happen in politics.